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Regional economic dynamic of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Development Level Research

Author: WeiZhi From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2010-06-27 13:47:17 Read:
Abstract: This paper according to the Chongqing Three Gorges reservoir area in 2003, 2005 and 2007 socio-economic data together constitute regional economic time series of three-dimensional data, the use of global principal component analysis and radar chart analysis method, the dynamic description of the Three Gorges Reservoir area economy differences, and the status of regional economic development level analysis and evaluation, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
Key words: three-dimensional timing data sheet Principle Component Analysis radar chart

Lap wings "development strategy in Chongqing Three Gorges reservoir area is known as the" Yu northeast wing, which includes 11 counties, accounting for 41.1% of the city's total area covers an area; the end of 2007, the resident population of 847.01 million, accounting for 30.01% of the total population of the city (Chongqing Statistical Yearbook 2008), due to the impact of natural and geographical factors and historical conditions, the Three Gorges reservoir area of ??industrial development foundation is weak, the total economic output is small, agricultural population, input-output low, poor are concentrated, is Chongqing's economic development "short board", so the analysis of the dynamic economic development of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the crack development imbalances, do a good job in urban and rural areas, the coordination of regional development and become a pressing issue ( Zhang Jie, Su, 2009; Feng Weibo, PENG Li, 2009). In this paper, the global principal component analysis and radar chart analysis method empirical analysis of the dynamic level of development of the regional economy of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Variables, sample selection and research methods

(A) the selection of variables
Three Gorges reservoir area and select the 12 indicators as a variable to characterize them is: x1: GDP (billion); X2: GDP per capita ($); X3: total fixed assets (million) of the total investment; X4: society as a whole the total retail sales of consumer goods (million); X5: local fiscal revenue (million); X6: per capita net income of rural residents (yuan); X7: urban and rural residents per capita savings deposits ( ); X8: people Number of Hospital Beds (Zhang); X9: professional and technical personnel per 10,000 people (a); X10: the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP; X11: urban economic units of workers in the average wage ($) ; X12: population urbanization rate.
(B) sample selection
Variable is determined, select 2003, 2005, 2007 included in the Three Gorges reservoir area in Wanzhou District, Liangping County, the city population County, Fengdu County, Dianjiang County, Zhong County, Kaixian, Yunyang, Fengjie, Wushan County, Wuxi County, a total of 11 districts and counties of the 12 indicators of the dynamic data samples (Chongqing Statistical Yearbook 2008,2006,2004), the timing of three-dimensional data constitute a dynamic economic development of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.
(C) research methods
Principal component analysis, a timing of three-dimensional data unified principal molecular space, the subspace to ensure the unity, integrity and comparability of the systems analysis, and then the entire system to be compared and evaluated to solve using cross-sectional data can not be dynamically reflect the level of regional economic development, to make up for the use of a single statistical indicator analysis of the problem, can not fully reflect the overall situation of regional economic development defects. This method of analysis is the global principal component analysis, and then use the methods of the radar chart to give a more intuitive, more clearly characterize the level of development of regional economic dynamics.

Empirical analysis of the

The original data standardization, comparability between the variables.
(A) Global Principal Components Analysis
Principal component analysis, the timing of three-dimensional data to convert multiple indicators into a composite indicator of the relatively small number of unrelated, to get the unified principal component common factor, to extract the most information of the three-dimensional table, so that the sample analysis and evaluation.
The multicollinearity inspection. Call SPSS Data Reduction Factor "process of principal component analysis (Wen-Tong Zhang, 2002), to calculate the sample correlation matrix, and the suitability of the principal component analysis, KMO test and Bartlett sphericity inspection, the results showed the sample data suitable for principal component analysis, are shown in Table 1.

Principal component analysis. Cumulative variance contribution rate of more than 80% of the principle to extract the principal component SPSS software to extract the first three principal components
Points Z1, Z2, Z3 cumulative variance contribution rate of 87.65 percent, the analysis process is omitted; Z1 contribution rate is 66.04%, mainly reflecting the total level of economic development; the Z2 contribution rate is 11.72%, from the per capita economic share of to measure the level of socio-economic development; Z3 contribution rate is 9.90%, which reflect the socio-economic development of science and technology and health factors; such three principal components will be able to reflect the original variables 87.65.
Calculated by SPSS software principal component score coefficient matrix constitute the three principal components of the formula, calculated districts and counties of the principal component scores (slightly) from three aspects comprehensively reflect the dynamic economic development of the Three Gorges Reservoir area level, but separately using a principal component, and can not make a comprehensive evaluation of the economic dynamics of the level of development of the various districts and counties, so this article is to measure the level of economic development of the various districts and counties to Z1, Z2, Z3 variance contribution rate of weight, the weighted sum constitutes a comprehensive evaluation score function:
Y = 0.6604Z1 0.1172 Z2 0.0990 Z3 calculated and Y values ??as shown in Table 2.
See from Table 2: 2003, 2005 composite score of the top three: Wanzhou District, Kai County and DianJiangXian, Wanzhou District lead, the indicators the top 2007 regional production The total value of more than 19 billion yuan, is the most economically developed areas of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area; Zhongxian ranking ranking changes, up to 2005 7 2003 8 2007 4 name, which is due to the county with the departure from the undertaking "circle" passed "wings", the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir core industries, in terms of industrial development, infrastructure, mechanism innovation active and "circle" full-docking , by "circle" the trend of development, the implementation of the industrial county, the county's economic and social accelerate the development of the first in the Three Gorges reservoir area. In contrast with 2007 consolidated scoring the first seven Yunyang, in 2003 and 2005 are ranked in three other districts and counties to seize the opportunity in the past few years the rapid development, the better the original foundation the Yunyang behind. The city population County, Wushan County, Wuxi County composite score at the last several counties belong to the agricultural economy in the region, the agricultural sectors of the economy, the comprehensive economic strength is weak, the industrial economy is relatively backward, The contribution to GDP is small.
(B) the radar chart analysis
1 draw a composite score radar chart. On the basis of the value in the composite score, draw a composite score radar chart. The steps are as follows: First, make a circle, and the circle is divided into 11 equal parts; Secondly, the link to the center of the circle and the 11 points of the radius of the radial axis of the 11 districts and counties. Then, the total score of the various districts and counties 2007 values ??are mapped to corresponding coordinate axis, then the coordinates of the corresponding point on the axis in turn connected together to give the 11-gon is the plane which means that the radar 11 (see Figure 1) (pay, FANG De-ying, 2007). It clearly reflects the dynamic economic development of the Three Gorges Reservoir area "attitude".
2 radar chart. From radar chart see more by the location of the point in the closed-loop, the higher the level of economic development of the county; more rearward within the lower level of economic development. So that the radar chart clearly shows the level of the various districts and counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir area economic comparison of the relative levels of economic development.
In Figure 1, the outermost of the corresponding location of the point of Wanzhou District, indicating the highest level of economic development in the area, it prominently in the center of the Three Gorges reservoir area, far ahead of its composite score value, with other counties to form a larger gap ; Second is Kai County, DianJiangXian, Zhongxian, Liangping County, they are a good momentum of economic development, but a big gap compared with the area of ??Wanzhou District, the need to accelerate the development of narrow the gap, to form the Three Gorges Reservoir Area coordinated development urban agglomerations; innermost Wuxi County, Wushan County, two counties, economic development has lagged behind, and requires close attention and be actively helping the rapid development of the economy.

Conclusion

First, the Three Gorges Reservoir area economy in recent years has been the steady development of faster development of Wanzhou District, Zhong County and other counties, they become the western region of Chongqing accelerate the construction of an important growth pole, the economic center of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River region, urban and rural play the role of a "boost" to co-ordinate the development of the municipalities for building a moderately prosperous society in the western region took the lead.
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