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Financial development, the upgrade of industrial structure and the process of city water

Author: RaoHuaChun From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2010-06-09 14:32:38 Read:
Keywords: the     of financial development; industrial structure; city of
Abstract: in this paper, VAR modeling and the co-integration analysis based on, using the Granger causality test and variance decomposition, the empirical study on relationship between China's financial development, the upgrade of industrial structure and the city of.The results show that: the financial development of our country, the upgrading of the industrial structure have effectively promoted the process of the city, but the upgrading of the industrial structure of the city's contribution rate of only about 15%, not fully play its role to the city.Therefore, to give full play to the upgrading of the industrial structure of the city of role, it is necessary to make the coordinated development and upgrading of the industrial structure and city and realize the effective interaction.City of promoting to the financial scale expansion and financial development on, focus on improving the efficiency of the financial system.
City is a common trend in the development of human society and an important process.After the reform and opening up, our city has entered a period of rapid development, the city changes rate rose from 17.92% in 1978 to 44.94% in 2007, 18 years increased by 27%, our country also from mainly agricultural economy into mainly to the city economic society.
The scholars of our country from the industrialization, industrial structure, financial development, institutional and policy perspective, study the main problems of China's city of power.However, most of these studies are based on the theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and simple linear regression, only the city of research in China from the perspective of a driving force.In this paper, on the basis of theoretical analysis, the analysis method for non-stationary time series, whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship and the short-term causal relationship between the influences of financial development, the upgrade of industrial structure and city, on this basis, the financial development, the upgrading of the industrial structure judgment on the city of the contribution rate.
, the financial development, the upgrade of industrial structure and the city of
The essence of city is the result of productivity changes caused by process and other economic factors of population transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural sector.From the city development stage, the initial stage of city industrial structure in agricultural dominant industry, the service industry proportion, the minimum period of accelerated industry; the highest proportion of service industry, the agriculture, the minimum; advanced stage is the tertiary industry, agriculture industry, ranked it shows corresponding relationship of each stage and the industrial upgrading of city structure.The upgrading of the industrial structure to promote labor from the first industry to the second industry and the tertiary industry aggregation, the transformation of agricultural practitioners to non-agricultural workers, accelerate the process of city, and attract more industries and population transfer to the city.The city will play a supporting role, to upgrade the industry, its internal mechanism for the performance of the investment forms, investment orientation and industrial integration in three aspects.Therefore, upgrading of industrial structure and city development is interaction, mutual influence, in second, the proportion of the three industry to increase the industrial structure is the symbol of the city will promote the upgrading process, promote the city of rate increases; in turn, city changes a course accelerate and improve the urbanization rate, will drive the industrial structure upgrading.
There is also a kind of mutually reinforcing relationship between financial development and the city of.Financial development can be a high proportion of savings into investment, improve the efficiency of capital allocation, affect savings rate, accelerate a city to change a course; in turn, the city will also promote financial development.According to the Patrick financial supply leading financial development theory, financial institutions to provide more financing channels and reduce the risk of financial services, create a favorable environment and conditions for the city of.At the same time, according to the Patrick financial demand following theory, brought about by the city of population aggregation, aggregation, enterprise capital accumulation for the financial sector to provide more extensive, more complex financial services, such as the demand for financial products, the expansion of risk aversion, thereby promoting innovation and development of the financial.
two, the index system and the data source of
(a) index system
Index of 1 city (E1).The existing literature, the level of city city city and rural population. The proportion of the total population that is useful, employment population proportion of the total employment population city represented.This paper adopts the former, namely the urban population proportion of the total population to measure.
2 indicators of financial development.Reflect a country's financial development indicators can be roughly divided into the scale of the financial development index (FD) and the efficiency of financial development index (FE).Index scale of development finance usually use M: and the proportion of GDP to measure, but Wang Yi (2002) the results showed that, the index has not been able to accurately measure the degree of financial deepening in china.In this paper, using bank loans accounted for the proportion of GDP to measure, the reason is that China's financial system is bank-based financial system, the banking system is far larger than the scale of the financial markets.In order to reduce the distortion of inflation, the consumer price index for urban and rural residents of GDP were falling, average value and this year by year the name to represent exclude price influence after the bank loans to the actual value.
The ratio of non state-owned economy to obtain bank loans that the entire financial system intermediary efficiency is much research in practice, this paper used by financial institutions of township and village enterprises loans, foreign-invested enterprises, private enterprises and individual mortgage loans and the proportion of GDP as a financial development efficiency index.
Index of industrial structure upgrade in 3 (CG).The industrial structure refers to the relationship and the ratio between the industry and the industry relations.This paper adopts the tertiary industry output value of the sum of the second industry and the proportion of GDP to measure.
(two) the data source
As China's economic policy in the larger difference before and after the reform and opening-up, data since 1978 reflects the changes in our city, so the empirical research for the 1978 to 2007 time span.Data are from "China Statistical Yearbook", "fifty-five years of new China's statistical data collection" and "China Financial Yearbook".
three, empirical research
(a) stationarity test time series
Before the inspection of financial development, the upgrade of industrial structure and city of cointegration, first with the ADF unit root test methods to test the stationary time series.The test results are shown in table 1.

From Table L shows, the time series CI, FD, FE and CG are integrated of order sequence.

Although the time series of CI, FD, FE and CG are nonstationary, but between them there may be a stationary linear combinations, the linear combination reflects the long-term stable relationship among the variables, namely the co-integration relationship.In this paper, using the Johansen cointegration test for cointegration test.This is a on vector autoregressive (VAR) model test method, before the cointegration test, you must first determine the structure of VAR model.The use of AIC, SC minimum information criterion and LR statistics as a standard to choose the optimal lag order is determined for the VAR model, co-integration test lag order number 3, and through the joint test of model selection to determine the cointegration model include constant and trend.Cointegration test results are shown in table 2.Table R represents the number of cointegration, refused to R 2 assumptions in the 1% significant level, there is a co-integration relationship between three variables.One cointegration vector corresponding to the co-integration relationship:

Numbers in brackets represent the T statistics for each coefficient.By (1) shows that, over the long term, our country city and financial development scale, the efficiency of financial development and industrial structure upgrade are related.
(three) causality test
The results of the cointegration test shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the variables in a, but the equilibrium relationship is causal relations still need further verification.Due to the unconstrained VAR model lag order number 3, so we need to fit a VAR (4) model.Each single equation of the specific Wald test results are shown in table 3.

From table 3 the test results, the short term, China's financial development scale, development efficiency is one-way Granger causes the city; the upgrading of industrial structure and city has a two-way Granger causality.City is not financial
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