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Update of the world economic crisis and China's industrial structure

Author: XuXiangFeng WangJianLin HouQia From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2010-06-06 06:08:02 Read:
Keywords: the upgrading of industrial structure of economic crisis
Abstract: the as the world financial crisis the world economy has suffered a serious blow, Chinese economy has not alone.In order to alleviate the world financial crisis on China's economy in our country, to prevent the rapid decline, the government promulgated a series of macro-control policies to stimulate economic development.But in the world financial crisis and the interaction of economic development cycle to the next, the effect of macro-control policy is not fast emerging, China's economy has begun to decline.China's economic decline is inevitable cyclical economic development, provides a rare opportunity and cyclical fluctuations in just this kind of economy for the upgrading of the industrial structure of our country.China should seize this opportunity, the elimination of backward production capacity, promote the upgrading of industrial structure in China, the opportunity to leapfrog development of the crisis into the realization of China's industrial structure.
According to the current domestic and international economic situation that, in the world after the financial crisis, global economic recession will follow, the down cycle will not less than 5 years.In this context, China is not alone.That the seas are in turmoil. Swim, or, China should be how to deal with?
, China's response to the global economic crisis, the macroeconomic policy analysis
the economic downturn, at the national level to promote economic development generally has three kinds of forms: investment, consumption, exports.The macroeconomic regulation and control policy of the government in general there are three: fiscal policy, financial policy, monetary policy.Such as the recent China's "four trillion" investment, the bank cut interest rates, lowering the deposit reserve rate, corporate tax cuts, to stimulate the market, encourage consumption etc..Most of these macro-control policies on investment and consumption, tries to expand investment, stimulate consumption and stimulate economic growth.
Long-term since our country investment accounted for the proportion of the average economic growth in more than 40%, economic growth was mainly driven by investment, consumption, export of.The development mode of investment to boost the economy primarily, in our country is often accompanied by inefficient, abuse, waste, and corruption.For example, repeated construction, performance engineering, bean curd dregs, over-exploitation of resources, environmental pollution and so on.If things go on like this, the sustainable development of the economy will be difficult to continue.So by stimulating consumption to stimulate economic growth is feasible? In our country since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the relationship between investment and consumption to adjust, focus on the expanding consumer demand for economic growth.But the actual results are: in 2000, consumption to promote the contribution to GDP growth rate of 3.6 percentage points higher than the investment pull, since 2001, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth rate for 6 years behind the investment.Incremental consumption accounted for the proportion of GDP increment has decreased from 63.8% in 2000 to 39.2 in 2006.The situation looks, irony.The government should expand consumption demand, improve the consumption contribution to economic development, the result is consumption contribution rate falling instead of rising.Why is there such a situation? I think the most fundamental is: the government should offer the livelihood of the public goods (medical, pension, education) a serious shortage of supply.In this case, for the people is more important than consumption savings.
In 2007, investment is higher than the consumption status has been reversed: consumption is higher than that of GDP growth for the first time in 7 years of investment, become the "three carriages".But good times don't last long, the stock market crash.According to estimates, the stock market "evaporation" lost $24.One of the most affected is the most spending power of the "middle class", which directly led to the whole society of consumption capacity decline.The American subprime mortgage crisis, the financial crisis in the world, so that more people Wujin purse.In this case, the central government will look to the rural market.Hope to open the gap from the rural market, expand domestic demand to boost the economy to achieve.In fact, the farmer has a little land basically no social security, and also to face death, children education and so on.So the rural market for consumption growth is not too large.In this view, the short term to stimulate consumption and boost the economy difficult to achieve the goal of.
"Investment" big side effects and can not be a long time, "consumption" also embarrassing burden, then export? With the world financial crisis, China's exports since 2001 June for the first time since the negative growth in November this year.Main reasons causing the decline in exports is what? Is the financial crisis led to the decline in consumption abroad ability? Or China's exports have no competitive advantage? Or other factors? Whether China can through their own efforts to change this situation?
Recently, the ordinary consumer capacity of European and American developed countries fell sharply reports it is often seen.And a domestic toy exporters in November exports to Europe and the United States market value has dropped nearly 20%.The decline of the most high-end products, low-end products is not affected by the impact of.These examples seem to meet the eye everywhere, the financial crisis led to decreased capacity consumption abroad is established.
Since our country entered the nineteen ninties, China's export product cost is rising, competitive advantage continuously decrease.In 2007, with many factors of the appreciation of the renminbi, subprime mortgage crisis, the export tax rebate cut, the new labor law etc., for more than a thousand failures only Guangdong region enterprises.Plus, Southeast Asia countries rely on natural resources and cheap labor resources to compete with china.The manufacturing industry of our country's original cost advantage in the textile, clothing and electrical and mechanical equipment has almost gone.
Cause a sharp decline in Chinese exports has another more important reason: China's export destination countries are too concentrated.In 2007, the EU, the United States, Japan only occupy a total of China's export market share 63%.In this mode, it is difficult to avoid market risks in china.After the financial crisis, with the economy of Europe and the United States has been hit hard, sharp recession China's exports, is the best evidence.
Exports, consumption is weak, all kinds of macroeconomic policies introduced by the government is "eat next year's food" emergency strategy, as for can work depends on the domestic economic situation.This situation has not be beset with troubles internally and externally in our government "single-handedly" to reverse.
two, the global economic crisis is an opportunity to upgrade China's industrial structure
"Curse of blessing hill, Fu Xi disaster V" everything will be beneficial to have disadvantages.With the world financial crisis, China's economy began to decline, but also provided a rare opportunity for the upgrading of the industrial structure of our country.The upgrading of the industrial structure is mainly refers to the improvement of industrial structure and industrial quality and efficiency.For China, the upgrading of the industrial structure is mainly refers to the industrial structure, from the "Smiling Curve" to the ends of the curve of the transfer, from labor-intensive to technology, capital-intensive.
The proportion of export products can be reflected more directly to a country's level of industrial structure.In 2007 China's exports of high-tech products accounted for 28.56% of total exports, the average export level of 40% in developed countries and far.Mechanical and electrical products accounted for 57% of total exports, but 3/4 is realized through the processing trade, and most of them are labor-intensive processing, labor-intensive products exports accounted for China's total exports of 50%, a cheap processing vehicle in China's large foreign companies between.At present, China's exports are mostly low value-added, low technology content of labor-intensive products.This situation illustrates the status of the low level of industrial structure in China from a side.Long-term since, our country has been committed to the upgrading of the industrial structure, but why there are three main reasons for the slow progress?:
First, good macroeconomic.In the rapid development of macro-economic situation, even without industrial upgrading, expansion of the low level of large-scale, but also to ensure the rapid development of the local economy, the lack of a sense of urgency industrial upgrading of the local government.
Second, industrial upgrading process is more difficult.Industrial upgrading will eliminate some of backward productive forces, encourage technological innovation, the introduction of technology capital intensive industry, cultivate the sunrise industry.This would lead to a temporary slowdown in local economic development speed, the fiscal revenue to temporarily reduce the negative effect.These negative effects can lead to local governments lack the power of industrial upgrading.
Third, industrial upgrading needs proper time.Industrial upgrading in the smooth functioning of the economy in the process, it needs great patience and cost, China's local government assessment is based on GDP development speed, under this system can pay enough patience and cost less and less.If not the right time to weaken or alter the original assessment mechanism, thus upgrading to create a more relaxed environment for the industry, industrial upgrading is difficult to quickly implement.
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