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On the upgrading of industrial structure and economic growth

Author: KeJun From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2010-06-06 05:42:40 Read:
Paper Keywords: upgrade the industrial structure the hierarchy of coefficient economic growth Granger test
Abstract: The article hierarchy of coefficients to describe the status of the upgrade of industrial structure, and empirical analysis of Anhui Province, its industrial structure upgrading and economic growth linkage relationship obtained Anhui Province, upgrading the industrial structure and economic growth in its linkage relationship dominant, the upgrading of the industrial structure is the Granger cause of economic growth, and economic growth is not Granger cause of upgrading the industrial structure.
1 variable cloud data
Upgrading of industrial structure indicators scholars in the past taken in the study of different indicators to describe the industrial structure changes, are: Clark defined industrial structure adjustment factor S, ie number of practitioners in the primary industry accounted for the total number of social employment specific gravity. Domestic scholars frequently used in the analysis of the industrial structure adjustment, structural adjustment coefficient S2, the first industry output value accounted for the proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP). Third, the value of changes in the industrial structure, where: K is the value of changes in the industrial structure; proportion of the reporting period of the industry; 9. The proportion of the base period of the first industry. Moore indicators, the the indicators use of space vector assay, the angle of the vector space basis, the industry is divided into n sectors, constitute a set of n-dimensional vector, the angle between the two sets of vectors of the two time period, as indicators of the characterization of the degree of change of industrial structure, the index is called Moore structural changes in value. The formula: M =, where M, said Moore structural changes in value, which means that the proportion of period t industry, which means that the proportion of time t 1 industry. Fifth, the level of industrial structure coefficient This indicator reflects the Industrial Structure extent. Located in a region of n industry, are arranged in these industries from high level to low level, the proportion of the proceeds were recorded for 9O, the regional industrial structure level factor: the formula is actually produced three times the proportion of the weighted sum and the level of the level of the three industries turn empowerment. Where W is the greater, the greater the coefficient of the level of the regional structure, indicating that the higher the level of Industrial Structure.
First, the smaller two two indicators, structural adjustment faster and to a certain extent reflect the degree of the industrial structure of high-class, but they did not reflect the second, between the relative changes in the structure of the three industries, the second and tertiary industries structure change also contains information of the upgrading of industrial structure. Especially if the different parts of the implementation of the different industrial structure development strategy, the more obvious shortcomings. Thus, these two indicators is not comprehensive, and use it to study the upgrading of industrial structure and economic growth relationship may lead to erroneous conclusions, such as Chen Hua (2005) and Liu Jianping (2006) use these two indicators to study the changes in the industrial structure and economic growth.
Third, four two indicators only reflect changes in the industrial structure, the index value, the rapid changes in the industrial structure, and does not reflect the upgrading of industrial structure information.
The fifth indicator taking into account the relative changes in the structure in the three industries over the previous two indicators, which is more comprehensive and reflects the upgrading of industrial structure. The hierarchy of the value and significance of the coefficient is to reflect the absolute level of the degree of Industrial Structure in a region of a Year, but mainly on the degree of comparison between the different areas and at different times between Industrial Structure and Structure Upgrade of changes in conditions the investigation "(Jing Xue Qing 2005).
Anhui Province is in the early stage of industrialization phase transition to the medium-term, while in "the 11th Five-Year Plan" proposed to take a new road to industrialization, the goals of the industrialized province, combined with the evolution of industrial structure general law, Anhui reasonable sort of level of industrial structure should be: the second and tertiary industries, the primary industry.
In this paper, the structure of three industries-level coefficient index to reflect the status of the upgrading of the industrial structure in Anhui Province, two, three, three industries order, in accordance with the hierarchy of coefficient formula percentage of the GDP, the three industries weighted sum to obtain the structural level coefficient. Is the proportion of the relationship between the three industries percentage of the GDP at current prices, not excluding the price factor does not affect the analysis purposes.
Indicators of economic growth with gross domestic product (GDP) indicators reflect the economic growth in Anhui Province, Anhui Province of Gross Domestic Product Index GDP adjustment in order to eliminate the impact of the price level, calculated at comparable prices GDP formula as follows: the actual GDP, = GDP9, 8 xI100 which GDP: said 1978 GDP calculated at current price, I, for the calendar year 1978 = 100 GDP index.
The data sample 19,782,005 in order to eliminate heteroscedasticity, logarithmic processing of variable data, after the variable sequences are denoted by: the LGDP and a LW.
2 Empirical Analysis
The Granger test before, you must clear two points: First, each variable is stationary time series, if not, should be at least the same order one sequence, or is likely to (pseudo) return false correlation and false, and therefore draw the wrong conclusions. Cointegration relationship between the variables, there is a long-term stable relationship between variables, otherwise there can be no causal relationship between them. Therefore, this article the use of Eviews5.0 metrology software, verify that the stability and co-integration of the two variables, then the Granger test results are as follows:
For smooth test: Use the ADF unit root test methods test variables LGDP and LW stationarity tests to determine the type of inspection, according to the timing diagram for each sequence, the test results are shown in Table 1:

Seen from Table 1, the variable the LGDP and a LW are non-stationary, but their first-order differential smooth, determination the LGDP and a LW are integrated of order one sequence.
Cointegration: the stationary test we can see from the above, the two variables are integrated of order one sequence, which is the premise of cointegration. The LGDP and LW with constant regression equation: LGDP = 1.504864679 10.49420365 * LW s,
(-2.4161) (12.2202)
Rz = 0.8517, goodness of fit the regression coefficients passed the test of significance. ADF test results are shown in Table 2:
on the the residuals estimated value s

Test statistic -2.2313 is less than the threshold of significance level 0.05 1.95 can be considered stable residual series, indicating that the regression equation of the statistical test by sequence LGDP and LW cointegration relationship. Therefore, the LGDP and a LW there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables.
Granger causality test: This article examines the lag phases were 1 year, 2 years, 3 years. Results are shown in Table 3:

3 Conclusion
(1) by the judgment of the above results, the lag of 1, 2, 3, accompanied by the probability of the null hypothesis' the LW not LGDP Granger cause "0.011,0.029,0.047, at the 5% significance level, reject the null hypothesis, especially when the lag a very significant, the accompanied the probability of only 0.011 "the LGDP not LW Granger cause", accompanied by the probability 0.10,0.531,0.277 accept the null hypothesis, therefore only Granger perspective of causality test, one-way Granger causality between the sequence LGDP LW, that is, upgrading the industrial structure of economic growth Granger cause Granger cause economic growth is not the upgrading of industrial structure and from the cointegration equation, Anhui provincial hierarchy of coefficients for each additional GDP growth of 10.49%, visible, Anhui industrial structure upgrade the role of economic growth is significant.
(2) However, we can not conclude that the upgrading of industrial structure on economic growth, economic growth does not affect the upgrading of industrial structure, the analysis only in the lag period of three years, the industrial structure upgrade the role of economic growth significantly upgrade the industrial structure and economic growth is not only significant in the long run, economic growth upgrading the industrial structure plays an important role.
Anhui, the reason for this outcome, there are two reasons, first because of the weak foundation of Anhui Province, from the beginning is a backward agricultural province, the level of economic development in Anhui Province has been below the national average, Anhui Province, the initial level of industrial structure is relatively low, is not conducive to economic development, upgrading the industrial structure is imperative. In order to catch up, Anhui Province has been working through a variety of ways to speed up economic development, including the implementation of industrial policy is always the key considerations in the destination adjust the industrial structure, promote the upgrading of industrial structure to promote economic growth. Second, the reform and opening up, the country in terms of economic structure to develop a series of economic policies conducive to rationalize the industrial structure, Anhui make full use of policies to promote the economic development of Anhui. This makes the relationship of the upgrading of industrial structure and economic growth, upgrading the industrial structure prior to the trend of economic growth, the role of economic growth stand out role in promoting economic growth on the upgrading of the industrial structure is not obvious .
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