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On the market diffusion of new products in the market inspection and Model

Author: WangYing LiuXiongBing From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2010-06-01 08:47:17 Read:
Abstract: diffusion process in the new products in the market, due to the uncertainty of the project, market inspection is particularly important from the significance of the check, the check items, check cycle model and inspection methods four aspects to be discussed, Special the market inspection cycle model to do in-depth research.

Paper Keywords: new product market diffusion market check

The proliferation of new product markets means that consumers gradual introduction of new products was officially on the market in accordance with the development plan process. When the new products officially diffusion, the risk of new product development projects may still not changed, but the realism of this page opened, the feedback information began to increase the uncertainty of the project. Changes in the market environment of various factors, or the gap between the results and plans of the new product market becomes a warning signal may be made to the plan amendment, the market for new product plans follow-up examination should begin. This article ready in the market to check the new product diffusion process from the following aspects: to check the meaning of check items, the inspection cycle model and check the method is recommended.
Market check significance
The so-called market check, information marketers to gather information about the market environment and marketing conditions, and make the appropriate comparison or evaluation, to provide the necessary basis for future marketing plans. We believe that the following possible reasons for the existence of markets for new products in the market diffusion process inspection of special significance:
1. The proliferation of new product markets before the start of the preparatory work deficiencies. Before the proliferation of new product markets, the market potential of new products, market segmentation and positioning, to meet consumer demand for the ability of diffusion capacity and modalities of acceptance of new products and new products in the market, consumers should be made to the detailed and careful research, forecasting and planning, but a series of influencing factors of uncertainty to the forecast or the accuracy of the decision-making has brought interference. Research, forecasting and planning methods and means may also bring a certain degree of error.
2. The proliferation of new product markets after the start of new things to happen. Market diffusion of new products, the brand image of the product, the degree of understanding of the consumer, preferences, trial, repeat purchase and satisfaction, product distribution, and ship opportunities emerging with the development of the market and competitors reaction may there was a series of new situations, only by adhering to check on the market, be possible to grasp the opportunities or threats as they arise, to make corresponding adjustments or modify or even terminate the planned programs.
Second, the market inspection project

For some markets is extremely small, the potential buyers is very determined and a scarce number of new products and new services, the spread of market follow-up examination may be relatively easy, as long as the direct communication with buyers and other key market stakeholders on the line. However, as the size of the market and the expansion of the geographical area, the need to more systematically track and inspect obvious. Glance, it seems that the measure of the factors of the following concepts as inspection items is desirable: sales, costs, market share, profits, and its growth rate and the contribution rate; trial, repurchase, awareness and achieve the degree of distribution; including the trend of climate, ecological, demographic, cultural, technical, economic, legal and regulatory business environment; including the political system, legislation, law enforcement agencies, financial institutions, mass media, trade associations, special interest groups and other corporate environmental regulation development trends; consumers and competitors, environment, information, attitudes and behavior and other aspects of the factors. However, the fact is only at very high risk of new product, the collection and analysis of so many follow-up examination of the value of the project if they are not to be paid the cost of offset, otherwise, should have the choice to treat items of information should be follow-up examination.
In general, the selection of projects should be more obvious sales performance: sales, costs, market share, profits and its growth rate and the contribution rate, followed by the selection of projects should have the ability to diagnose Of course, the choice of the project depends on the new problem areas found in the product and the entire development process. Side, completely innovative products, the response factors of the importance of diagnostic information of potential buyers will be more than the competitors, and other variables; put ready to ship new products in the existing market structure, competitors factors (especially computer market share and compete with other actions related sales) will be very interested; high-tech health care products, continuous supervision of the technical, regulatory, medical, social and political The development trend may be necessary; For frequently purchased consumer products, the trial, re-purchase, awareness, preferences and achieve the degree of distribution and other aspects of the situation may constitute an important source of diagnostic information. Give priority to the key items of information necessary for the evaluation of market performance, Second, consider the prediction bias diagnostic factors, is a key step in the market follow-up examination.
Third, the market inspection cycle model
The market inspection cycle, the proliferation of new product markets after the start of two consecutive market conditions check interval we propose the market inspection cycle because the following three points:
1. Assuming the diffusion process of new product markets, the original plan with the realities asked harmony, which required a corresponding adjustment to the market diffusion, the proliferation of new products in the market problems, the proliferation of new products in the market in the "problem" run to the next inspection only to be found, will result in a great loss.
2. Market inspection cost money, when the inspection cycle is very short, frequent inspections will bring substantial cost investment, and therefore must choose the appropriate market inspection cycle.
3. New products in the market diffusion process, some information, such as sales, cost of sales, market share, profits, and its growth rate and contribution rate, is relatively easy to obtain; But other information, such as the environment or changes in market conditions, Customer attitudes and reactions required by the more complex, such as market research, customer visits, in order to obtain. In this regard, the the market inspection cycle is of course important. When the information is relatively easy to get the appropriate market inspection cycle for the elimination of accidental errors, and enhance the persuasiveness of the information taken to determine the precise comparative evaluation mode also has a special significance.
According to research, we are ready to build stochastic optimization model, the random laws of the diffusion process of new product markets and the resulting loss of fees assumptions to determine the average market inspection cycle cost as low as possible.
We model made the following assumptions:
l, the probability of the diffusion process of new product markets smell with a continuous distribution function to describe, assuming that the inspection intervals (t). S (I) is a continuous function, check the number of times within a unit time for N (t) = 1 / S (t), as compared with the product life cycle, s (t) is small and N (t), and N (t) is a continuous function.
2. Of new product market diffusion problems in time probability distribution function r (t), the probability density f (t), the product life cycle is T, then F (T) = l:
3. Of new product market diffusion in question to check the cost for this time is proportional to the scale factor of Cl, is the unit of time damages;
4. Due to the number of checks per unit time N (t). Problems between checks moment that is uniform, the problem with running time to take the mean of the distribution;
5. Each inspection fees set to C2, the frequency of inspections to time t can be expressed as .
Based on the above assumptions, we believe that the proliferation of new products in the market has been running a check found that the problems or product life cycle T, the optimization objective function to take such a total cost (loss of fees and inspection fees) expectations. If the proliferation of new products in the market (t, t At) has encountered a problem by assuming 4 shows that with running time for S (t) = 1 / (2N (t)). By assuming
3, damages C1 / (2N (t)), 5 It is assumed that the inspection fees for C2 *

Assumption 2, the total cost of new products in a single run expectations
another random variable x which means that the life of the new product on the market, the distribution function F (t) = P (x <= t) represents a new product The market life probability does not exceed the time t, x is the probability density is denoted by f (t), the life is greater than the probability of t is denoted by R (t), R (t) = P (x> = t) = 1-F ( t) is referred to as the reliability of the new products, the definition of r (t) = f (t) / R (t) is the attrition rate of new products, (10) can be expressed as
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