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An Empirical Analysis of China's listed companies debt maturity structure and operating results

Author: LiQiang From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2009-12-20 23:46:19 Read:
[Abstract] to deep, the Shanghai A-share market listed company's sample data, the impact of Chinese listed companies debt deadline structure with the company's operating results for the conduct empirical analysis, and analysis conclusions proposed optimization Firm Debt Maturity, improve the enterprise's Results of Operations recommendations.
[Keywords] debt maturity structure operating results empirical analysis

First, the study sample selected

Selected before December 31, 2000 in Shanghai, and Shenzhen-listed company as the original sample of companies, and these companies for six consecutive years of data investigated, that is, from 2000 to 2005 to establish a raw sample database. Samples to determine principles: (1) due to the empirical analysis of the debt maturity structure is usually based on the normal living conditions of the company, but the living conditions of the special handling class is obviously an exception has occurred, and thus removed as of December 31, 2005 with PT, ST, * ST logo sample companies; (2) foreign shares with the public A shares, the impact factors include the degree of development of the foreign market, in this study, the exclusion of the B shares and H shares Company; (3) does not consider the financial listed companies, this is the view of the characteristics of the financial listed companies to be struck off from the sample. After select this article finally selected sample of 55, a total of 330 observations recorded in six consecutive years. The analysis of the data comes mainly from the GTA database, some of the missing data from the listed companies in China Wide Web, the financial sector and other sites.

Second, the design of the model

Two indicators of the current liabilities rate and long-term debt ratio as the independent variables in the model, and study its impact on the return on total assets, return on equity, earnings per share, and the main income growth rate, respectively. is a random interference term, said the impact of national the related macroeconomic policy (interest rates, taxes, etc.).
Model: ROA = 0 1 the VDR 2 LDR
Second model: ROE = 0 1 the VDR 2 LDR
Model: EPS = 0 1 the VDR 2 LDR
Model four: of MBRG = the 0 the 1 the VDR 2 LDR
China's market environment and the system is in a period of development and reform, the the different periods listed companies affected by the policy side and the market side, the company's trading position in the difference may be larger, if the use of a year of data separately analyze the possible exception This article first six years of data of the sample companies averaged regression analysis, and also to some extent eliminate the data skew problems brought by the use of separate data analysis a year, and conclusions more objective and reliable.

Third, verify the results and analysis

Note: (1) value for t * indicates the degree of confidence of 95%, and ** represents the 90% confidence level, *** indicates a lower degree of confidence, or did not pass the test (2) for the F value, * indicates that 99% confidence level, ** 95% confidence level, *** indicates low confidence or did not pass inspection (3) regression model results Doberman value model does not exist autocorrelation phenomena. Conclusions

(A) from above regression estimation results, most of the parameters can be in a higher degree of confidence under inspection few years, the individual parameters is not significant or did not pass inspection, which does not affect the overall regression results of the model, Most of the goodness of fit of the model also has basically reached the expected level.
(B) by the goodness of fit can be seen, the debt maturity structure of the explanatory power of the four indicators that reflect the Company's operating results, on the whole, the debt maturity on the interpretation of the rate of return on total assets strongest, followed by net The rate of return on assets, and earnings per share, the last main business growth.
(C) by the coefficients of the independent variables from the regression results of all four models can be seen, whether it is significant or not significant, the sign of the result is uniform. Current liabilities ratio of the total return on assets, return on equity, earnings per share have negative effects on the growth rate of the main income of the positive effect; while long-term debt ratio on the total return on assets, return on net assets rate, earnings per share, the main income growth rate has a positive effect on the role.
(D) analysis of all four models the coefficients of the two independent variables, can know the degree of influence of the two independent variables selected for the four financial indicators also significantly different from the model a model 2 coefficients can know, flow The effect is stronger than the long-term debt ratio of the debt ratio to the total return on assets and return on net assets; while the rate of current liabilities and long-term debt ratio on the growth rate of earnings per share and the main income is almost all the same, the difference is not obvious.

Recommendations

From the analysis of the overall debt maturity structure have a significant impact on the role of the operating results of the enterprise for the results of this analysis, to improve the debt maturity structure of listed companies in China, but also to improve the operating results of listed companies in China are as follows relevant policy recommendations.
(A) to accelerate the development of the debt market in China. Businesses to choose reasonable debt structure must be supported by well-developed corporate debt market, which is China's listed companies to optimize the basis of the debt maturity structure environment. Debt market not only for the debt, the debt money lenders for borrowing Moreover, creditors and debtors in the debt market make unified to take place within a broader range of the cost of debt and the debt risk, the liquidity of debt constraints and debt In comparison, the debt structure tends to be more optimized.
(B) change the corporate debt financing mainly rely on a single type of bank loans, opening up new debt financing channels. In bank borrowings and financing absolute position in China's listed companies, almost non-existent extensive use of foreign corporate bonds and leases, and other forms of financing. Therefore, the policy and financing environment should encourage qualified companies to issue corporate bonds as much as possible.
(C) the change in the debt maturity structure of short-term debt financing tendency to encourage the issuance of bonds and notes. China's listed companies, financing arrangements should take into account the relatively low cost of the medium-and long-term bond financing, give full play to the role of the governance of corporate bonds.

References:
[1] Yuan Weiqiu debt maturity structure impact on enterprise value microprobe Communication of Finance and Accounting, 2006, (10)
[2] bond repurchasing debt maturity structure of listed companies Influencing Factors of Shanghai Finance, 2006, (11)
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