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Appropriate measure of investment scale and the implementation of the recommendations

Author: ZhangShuLiĦĦRenJuanQinĦĦLiuKai From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2009-09-03 21:36:09 Read:
(a) a modest investment scale definition and measurement of
, a moderate investment scale defining principles
The basic principle of fixed assets investment scale is moderate, is to look at the investment scale and strength of compatible.But from a regional perspective, but also with the local economic situation and the future development goals to determine.According to the experience of domestic and foreign history, in determining the appropriate investment scale, the general should adhere to the following principles:
One is to adhere to the principle of steady growth of investment
Two is to adhere to the investment growth priority principle;
Three is to adhere to the investment rate of moderate principle;
Four is to adhere to the principle of investment application.
The above points respectively to discuss:
The principle of stability, the investment 1
Historical experience proves, role in promoting investment in fixed assets of the economy development only when the scale of investment control in the reasonable scope is a positive and effective.Because the investment fluctuation determines the economic fluctuation, to a great extent, therefore, the investment change radically, will lead to violent oscillation of economy, an important prerequisite to maintain the stability of investment growth is national economic stability, but also maintain a strong lever for stable economic growth.
The steady growth of investment is not to eliminate the volatility of investment growth, but that the fluctuation of investment control within a moderate or reasonable range, avoid excessive expansion of investment and investment contraction.To judge the stability of the investment is mainly from the following two aspects, one is to avoid investment negative growth; two is in a period (5 years), the highest and lowest growth rate of investment growth ratio should not exceed 2:1.
2, investment growth priority principle
In order to develop economy, investment should go ahead of the rest.According to Marx's theory of reproduction, investment growth must be a priority on economic growth."In the progress of production technology, improve the level of technology and equipment of the stage of economic development, the annual investment scale than GDP growth faster."Many developed countries in the world in the early stages of development and reconstruction stage, is to rely on large-scale investment in the construction and development of the.
At different stages of development, there is a general and reasonable range of the first degree.Development of advanced countries, along with the advancement of science and technology factor, efficiency factor in the economic development of the increasingly enhanced, the economic growth will inevitably transformed by speed to benefit, investment growth faster than the economic growth rate will gradually reduce.Such as Japan in the 50's, the investment growth rate than the economic growth rate was 7.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate, 1.71; to the 60's, preferred growth rate reduced to 3.4:1, investment growth and economic growth
Long speed ratio is reduced to 1.3.Therefore, we can analyze from the "annual investment priority growth" and "investment growth and economic growth ratio coefficient", identified two standard investment growth at the present stage of our city:
(L) an annual 6-10 percent growth in investment priority to economic growth is more appropriate;
(2) proportion coefficient of fixed asset investment growth and GDP growth should be between 1.5-1.9.The GDP growth 10%, investment growth 15.0-19.0%."First growth" and "ratio" is from the absolute amount and
The relative amount of reflecting the relationship between investment growth rate and economic growth rate.Put the two together, to more accurately reflect the reasonable degree of the scale of investment from the aspects of.
3, the investment rate of moderate principle
The rate of investment refers to investment in fixed assets accounted for the proportion of gross domestic product, it reflects the investment scale and power adaptation is an important indicator of the degree.The investment rate is too high, exceeding the economic actual bearing capacity, it is possible to cause imbalance of the development of the national economy; the investment rate is too low, the investment on economic development impetus is not fully play.Relevant research data show that, our current investment rate is appropriate between 32-40%, the investment in Sanmenxia city were analyzed.
From the previous situation can be seen, degree of changes in economic development and investment size reflected in the investment rate.The rate of investment, economic growth speed; investment rate is small, then the economic contraction.As the inflation rate also changes with the investment rate and lagged one year change.According to estimates the investment rate and the commodity retail price index (a) correlation coefficient reaches as high as 0.82, that the investment rate and inflation rate there is a strong correlation between the.
Sanmenxia 1988-1998 investment rate below 30% years 3 years 30% years, more than 7 years.When the investment rate is below 30%, the economic growth is slowing down, the economic growth rate was significantly lower in 4-6% for 2 years.It can be concluded that the investment rate is low investment level below 30%.
When the investment rate is in 30% above, the economy rapid growth, but also brings high inflation, most year inflation rate at 10.2% (one year).Such as high investment rate in 1994 41.7%, GDP increased by 13.2%, but the following year appeared 16, 8% rise in prices, therefore, the rate of investment is high investment levels in more than 38%.
When the investment rate is between 30%-38%, for most of the years of GDP can maintain rapid growth, but also can maintain the low inflation rate.It can be concluded that, Sanmenxia city investment rate is more suitable in between 35% and 40%.But from the development experience of relevant countries, many countries in the period of rapid economic development after a period of higher investment rate.
South Korea, Singapore in a period of rapid economic development of the investment rate has a more than 36% times, taking into account the city is in the stage of rapid economic development, from food and clothing to well-off period, economic strength is equivalent to the early 60's of japan.So learn from their experience, combined with the actual city, in the past 5-10 years, I investment rate at 35%-40% is more suitable for.
4, the principle of investment to
refers to the principle of investment to investment must adapt with the social and economic development goals, needs to adapt to the political and economic policy.As in recent years, the national economic policies to the western regions, formulated to accelerate the development of the western region, improve the quality of economic operation in the eastern region and western region economic development strategy, investment growth should be faster, the investment rate should be slightly higher, the eastern region investment rate can be slightly more, of course, coming along with the transformation of economic growth mode, the investment rate will gradually decline.Therefore, investment growth should be with the development of the economic situation changes.
two, to measure moderate investment scale
without considering exports and inventory factors circumstances. We for the past ten years, the rate of economic growth, the growth rate of investment and consumption growth rate of linear regression analysis, the quantitative relationship:
GDP=0. 265 x IF 0.314 x CO 2. 378
(where GDP is the growth rate of GDP growth rate of investment; IF'; CO as the amount of consumption growth rate.)
taking into account differences in economy, consumption and investment fluctuations, to maintain its synchronization, we in the calculation of GDP growth rate and rate of consumption growth at comparable prices (previous year 100) calculation, and rejecting the abnormal year (a year GDP growth investment negative growth), from the above equation, the elastic coefficient of gross domestic product in the investment of 0.265, in the consumption unchanged, the investment of 1 percentage points per growth can drive GDP growth by 0.265 percentage points.We can measure using the established model, and to determine the binding defines the principle of appropriate investment scale.
(two) the implementation of countermeasures appropriate public investment Qi long to establish
make the investment to maintain appropriate growth is the inevitable requirement of the development of the national economy, but increase the investment must have money as a guarantee, otherwise it will become an empty talk.Therefore, make every attempt to increase investment is the main task of the investment in.On one hand, to actively raise funds for construction, increase investment; on the other hand is to fully mobilize and exert the enthusiasm of the whole society investment, increasing the demand for investment, from the current situation, in financing should be mainly do the following several aspects of the work:
1, to broaden the financing channels, to raise funds for construction.One is to increase the stock market financing, and make full use of the existing policies of the state, make every attempt to A shares, B shares and foreign shares work, strive for the listed indicators and the issuing scale.In the size of the stock arrangements, listing Corporation's recommendation, and the reform of state-owned enterprise
Leather, combined with structural adjustment, state and city industrial policies, to ensure consistent key construction requirements, priority support to determine the implantation dominant industry and traditional industry transformation of key projects and large-scale infrastructure projects in the city, combined with the implementation of state-owned enterprises in the strategic adjustment and "catch put greatly small" policy, there is planned, organized a number of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, accelerate the shareholding system reform pace, the listing to raise funds for technological transformation and expansion of the scale of enterprises, the development of pillar industries.And make full use of two markets, "shell", "backdoor listing", through the listing Corporation's rights offerings, attract social capital.Two is to encourage enterprises to cross-sectoral, trans-regional investment, invigorated the stock assets through the transfer of management rights, property rights, raise construction funds.Focus on infrastructure, basic industries project construction, we should study on the financing of convertible bonds.Three is to develop industry investment fund.Investment fund is market economy countries and regions in the development of a kind of financing way is faster at the end of this century due to its use and, expert management, portfolio characteristics, can raise the risk of the investment, access to higher returns.Four is to revitalize the various funds.By focusing on land leasing income, resources tax and reasonable sale of public houses by, also can get considerable funds, to speed up the pace of infrastructure construction and housing.With the establishment of the social security system, pension, unemployment, medical and other types of insurance funds will be increased year by year.Reasonable, safe to live with all kinds of social insurance fund, not only conducive to the economic construction, also has the fund benefit.
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