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Learning curve and its discriminant analysis of listed companies' financial risk

Author: ZengFanRong°°PengNa From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2009-04-25 12:25:52 Read:
[Abstract] combined with the learning curve and three-stage learning curve basic principles, this paper 179 ST Company's Annual Report 1999 to 2006, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share data discriminant analysis, the initial stages of learning in order to listed companies' financial risk, stabilize the learning phase and slow learning stage cut-off point, for each cut-off point, the listed companies' financial risk prevention and avoidance measures, in order to facilitate listed companies with their own reasonable hedge.
[Key words] learning curve; financial risk; listed companies; discriminant analysis

ST is subjected to special treatment (Special Treatment) listed companies, financial losers in the stock market. In the face of China's stock market, ST's long list of how to make the ST companies "Zhaimao.", How to make the results of non-ST Chang Hung enough to appeal to every economic management scholars thinking and explore the topic. The following I will depart from the learning curve, the study learning curve in the presence of Chinese listed companies.

First, the learning curve and Its Existence

In 1936, Dr. Wright (TP Wright), Cornell University, studying the manual assembly of aircraft industry, found that increasing the number of aircraft production and the relationship between the average direct labor costs, direct labor hours per unit of product and production number of incremental inversely proportional to the evolution, the development of a learning curve (Learning Curve), and is widely used in the aviation industry and other industries.
Learning curve, also known as progressive curve, experience curve (Experience Curve), to improve the curve, is a dynamic production function. With the the production increasing number of direct labor hours per unit of product decreased learning effect.
The introduction of the learning curve in financial risk analysis, innovative analytical tools, it is necessary first learning curve in the presence of listed companies in China to be analyzed, which have the possibility and feasibility of the follow-up learning curve applied research. Combined with the author previous research (see the author in the Communication of Finance and Accounting & Finance 2007 12 articles), we can see the author prior to the securities STAR Web site to collect 1999 to 2006, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share 179 ST Company's annual report data, data analysis after finishing as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 shows that ST companies are arranged in ascending order of the number of years of listed the cumulative ST years than showing a decreasing trend. That is, with the cumulative increase in the number of listed years, the the cumulative ST number of years the proportion of the total listed number of years decline encounter ST ratio decreased to a certain extent, this reflects the financial risk control capabilities. Which ST number of years, on behalf of the ST, the company has the financial risks in the financial risk of exacerbation of greater than 0. Listed on the calculation of the number of years to the date of the reporting period, the furthest distance of the reporting period a year so far, the number of years between the listed number of years referred to here. Such as the present study the 2006 Annual Report and collected before the farthest's 1999, the company's listed number of years in mind for eight years. Similarly, ST years starting from the end of the reporting period, listing eight years, eight times the annual report of the company name with ST, ST number of years of the company's recorded as 8 years. 7 Annual Report of the company name with ST, ST number of years of the company in mind for seven years, and so on. The ST years than = ST years / listed number of years.
Has been introduced in the previous study, Wright learning curve to build the learning curve equation of the listed companies in China. The findings are as follows:
Wright learning curve: Y = axm, which, y is x years of unit costs, defined here for the listing of x-year cumulative ST years the number of accounting for cumulative listing of the total annual number of ratios; x is cumulative production, defined here as the cumulative number of listed years ; m is the learning coefficient, m °‹ 0; a is the coefficient of the independent variable. Usually the learning rate C represents a learning curve, C = 10m lg2. Small learning rate increased with cumulative production, the rapid decline in working hours (cost); learning rate, on the contrary.
Taking the logarithm on both sides of the above equation, the learning curve equation into a regression equation, with the regression equation obtained from 1999 to 2006 China's stock market listed companies learning curve equation: y = 4.5846x-0.7686. By C = 10m lg2 solve for the learning rate C is 58.82%.

Therefore, China's stock market listed company on the prevention of financial risks and to avoid can be used to analyze the learning curve theory, a listed company on the prevention of financial risks and avoid the learning effect exists. The following borrow discriminant analysis on the the phased learning curve in-depth analysis.

Discriminant analysis of the stages in the learning curve

The studies have shown that the financial risks of the ST, with the cumulative increase in the number of listed years, cumulative ST number of years show a downward trend, ST learning curve exists. Thus, ST can create a normal learning curve to play a learning effect, the maximum degree of control financial risks. Discriminant analysis tools with SPSS software, the to 179 ST companies listed number of years, the ST number of years and ST years than as independent variables divided into three categories, 179 ST Company intends to use the analysis are shown in Table 1.

Table 1 shows the results of the classification statistics, including mean, variance, unweighted weights and weighted weight. First listed the number of years an average of 6.458333, the standard deviation of 1.428559.
Table 2 analyzes used in the first two specifications discriminant function, canonical discriminant equation eigenvalues ??and variance. Take the number of variables and the number of categories of the characteristic roots less in a smaller value. Here are divided into three categories, the number of variables, so the number of characteristic roots is equal to 2, the first characteristic root of 5.011636, 94.54098% of the variation can be explained.
The canonical discriminant validation of the equation are given in Table 3. Wilks'Lambda statistic deviation cross-product matrix determinant of the total deviation of the ratio of the cross-product matrix determinant expression for the class. Visible, the discrimination ability of the two canonical discriminant equation are significant.
Table 4 shows the Standardized canonical discriminant equation coefficients. Based on the given coefficient, the first standardized canonical discriminant function expression for:
y1 = 0.069856 °Ń ST years years 1.051935 0.043949 °Ń Listing
°Ń ST years
the y2 = -0.81742 °Ń ST years of years 1.381753 1.931809 °Ń Listing
°Ń ST years
Star site securities by analyzing annual data for 1999 to 2006, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share 179 ST, ST years, calculated according to the 1999-2006 annual reports of listed companies in accordance with the time information of the companies listed in the 2006 annual reports of listed companies listed the number of years until 2006 calculated cumulative listing of the number of years. Calculations, the ST number of years than the existence of the phenomenon of greater than 1, which is impossible in theory, but because the data collection program here is not an error, so the data of listed companies in China's stock market, can also explain listed companies listed information confusion than is greater than 1, so the number of years of ST still be retained. Although Table 5ST number of years than the cut-off point is not continuous, faithful to the empirical results, but here are not adjusted. Combination of statistical results in accordance with the case, the statistics table, calculated in each group classification of its critical point. The specific data are shown in Table 5.
Based on this, to be saved to the output variables and assumptions grouping control analysis (specific data omitted), combined with the three stages of the learning curve, the following sub-listed company's financial risk:
(1) listed the number of years of not more than 8 years (not included) ST listed companies in the initial stages of learning, the cumulative number of annual listing, learning ability, is also a great room for improvement.
(2) the cumulative number of years listed in the 8-12 years (excluding ST listed company), in a stable learning phase, the cumulative listing more years, learning ability, the room for improvement is also small.
(3) cumulative years listed the ST companies listed more than 12 years, in a slow learning phase, the cumulative listing the number of years, learning ability slowdown in the growth rate.
Figure 2 shows the the phased learning curve after discriminant analysis.
Faithful to the empirical results, here the presence of a number of the ratio of the ST year greater than 1 unscientific and the number of years of ST score sector discontinuity is not adjusted, thus the ratio of the number of years of ST boundaries summarized as follows: ST years than in between 0.73-1 listed companies, to stimulate their learning ability, play a potential learning effect; and the number of years of ST in between 0-0.73 listed companies, to stimulate their learning ability, to play the learning effect of potential smaller; ST number of years equal to 0 listed companies, the report of the year did not suffer the ST, no serious financial risk.
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