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Inter-enterprise debt and macroeconomic fluctuations (below)

Author: FanGang From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2007-11-21 19:04:07 Read:
Third, inter-enterprise debt "normal growth" and "extraordinary growth"

The 3.1 corporate debt "real growth"

Usually we see from the statistics, the growth of inter-enterprise debt, includes the impact of inflation. The most important of which is the intermediate product (production) the impact of the price rises, because among enterprises in arrears mainly caused due to the transactions of intermediate goods.
Inter-enterprise debt growth, due to the expansion of the real purchasing power of the enterprise to increase the transaction means the total economy itself may be factors that led to the rise of the general price level (someone in the CIS countries, the growth of inter-enterprise debt is inflation The main reason, see Rostowski, 1994). Especially high economic growth period (the period of prosperity or "overheating" period), inter-enterprise debt growth will affect the price level after rising. However, in some periods, the growth of inter-enterprise debt is mainly affected by the pre-inflation caused by the impact of rising prices of the means of production, transaction amounts of the same production increased due to higher prices from the previous month (the 1993-1995 period that great extent this is the case).
People generally calculated using the GNP deflator enterprise between actual debt "(Rostowski, 1994), we are also in accordance with this approach the analysis (see Table 2). But need to be pointed out, in institutional transition economies, the economic structure is generally far away from the equilibrium point, the rate of price changes on the different markets far away, with the rate of change of the general price level (GNP deflator) You can not precisely Ming inter-enterprise debt problem is mainly caused by production (intermediate product) transactions. For example, in a recent cyclical fluctuations ,1992-1993 production price index (Producerindex) has greatly increased, while the increase in the consumer price index; began to implement macro-tightening policies, the prices of the means of production decline in the prices of consumer goods in the second half of 1993 due to rising costs, a sharp rise (see Table 4, the relationship between the various price indices). In this case, a more detailed analysis should also calculate the actual production price index deflator enterprise debt, and thus have a clearer understanding of the actual growth rate of inter-enterprise debt. For example, in 1993, the prices of the means of production rise higher, to calculate the actual growth rate of the debt is less than the actual growth rate of the GNP deflator debt; in 1994, tends to stabilize the prices of the means of production, debt to calculate the actual growth rate is higher than the growth rate of the GNP deflator (see Table 4).

3.2 inter-enterprise debt the "natural growth"

In addition to the rise of the price level will cause the growth of corporate debt, economic growth, the expansion of the scale of economic activity itself can also lead to inter-enterprise debt "natural growth" - to produce something more, the number of each transaction the scale of indebtedness among enterprises will naturally increase. Of course, we hard to know exactly what the actual debt growth rate is "natural". A complex set of factors: economic growth rate is maintained at a higher level is, perhaps related to the excessive growth of inter-enterprise debt (see later analysis) However, in order to approximate to illustrate the problem, we may wish to assume that with the economic growth rate, industrial output value (the total trading volume of the industrial enterprises) growth rate is equal to the debt growth, for inter-enterprise debt "natural growth rate".
The complexity of the problem is due to the macroeconomic fluctuations reason, in some years (such as 1994), inter-enterprise debt, substantially increase far beyond the scope of normal growth and result in incremental debt next year although the absolute value is also a great However, compared with the previous year's total growth rate was smaller or even decline in growth (such as 1995). One way to deal with this problem: the implementation of monetary tightening the previous incremental debt as the base, multiplied by the growth rate of industrial output value, to arrive at a product of natural increment can be regarded as the "actual business debt ; then study the relationship between actual debt incremental "natural increment can be drawn from the concept of a debt is normal growth.

Debt 3.3 "extraordinary growth"

Directly observable in reality is the nominal growth rate of the inter-enterprise debt, denoted by d; And we need to focus on research to get over "actual debt growth rate (d 'indicates), from d" Less to the following factors:
The inflation rate in p; rate of economic growth (gross industrial output value growth rate), g;
: D ' d-p-g
(In addition, the debt between enterprises as well as the analysis in the previous section 2.1 "institutional growth factors. Due to statistical difficulties in the analysis of debt growth in recent years its neglected dollars).
For example, the nominal growth rate of the debt 370,000 industrial enterprises in 1994 (d) of approximately 82.65% to 18.6%, the rate of inflation (GDP deflator); gross industrial output value growth rate of 26.8%; what we can get "actual debt over the growth rate" (d ') is about 37.97%. This figure than direct observation to the nominal growth rate is much smaller, which may be better able to explain the problem.



3.4 Current seriousness of the problem of inter-enterprise debt

Although we have pointed out the growth of inter-enterprise debt is normal or "natural" to some extent, but still can not deny the seriousness of the debt problems of China in recent years. This can be seen by the following indicators:
- Super-normal growth for three consecutive years. Subtracting the factors of inflation and economic growth factors, we see the inter-enterprise debt continuously since 1993 to more substantial "super-normal" growth of 69.6% in 1993, 38% in 1994; 1995 preliminary estimates will reach nearly 20% (see Table 2);
- Inter-enterprise debt and the proportion of industrial added value (equivalent to industrial GDP) in 1994, has reached 43 percent, more than the average level of developed market economies, just below 20% in Japan (UK, 17% in the United States, France, 38% in Japan, 59%);
- The level of inter-enterprise debt? quot; turnover days "(that people owe a debt to total output value that is the indicator of the proportion of the total transaction amount), has reached 114 days, more than the level of the major developed countries in the West (France, 110 days), even across Russia, Poland and other countries the economic transition early (1992);
- Inter-enterprise debt, with the average ratio of the Bank (industrial) loans has been increased to 67%, a case-by-case investigation found some companies the ratio is close to or even greater than one, close to the average level of developed countries (generally about) ; taking into account the higher bank debt ratio of China's enterprises, 67% from the whole is already high.


Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate debt behavior

From the previous statistical analysis, we can see that: First, inter-enterprise debt since 1985 has been on the rise, but the boom period of the growth rate of the growth rate and the economy in times of austerity there is a difference, especially since the late 1980s early two macro-control, inter-enterprise debt have suffered a sudden high growth; Second, corporate debt and the ratio of industrial output, and the ratio between corporate debt and bank loans (money supply), and the different economic fluctuations The time is different, and there have been large fluctuations.
Meanwhile, in reality, the people of the feeling of the severity of the debt problem in the enterprise, in different periods of macroeconomic fluctuations is different, in times of austerity enterprise arrears problem very seriously, in the high period, although inter-enterprise debt in growth, but people seem to feel, it does not cause real economic problems. This indicates that the relative size and role of the corporate debt is also affected by the macro-economic impact. Therefore, we have the necessary corporate debt issues from the macro analysis.
4.1 high corporate debt during the
The economic boom period, inter-enterprise debt will grow. Since 1985, state-owned enterprises "receivables" has shown a growing tendency during the economic boom period 1985-1988, and 1992-1993 economic boom. However, the boom period, changes in corporate debt, relative to the times of austerity, has the following characteristics:
First, the growth rate is relatively low. Tightening before December 1985 to June 1988, the growth rate of nominal debt does not exceed 35%; gradual economic recovery in 1992, the growth rate of nominal debt decreased from 40% to 20% in January-June 1993 is the period of the lowest growth of corporate debt in the past 10 years, the highest monthly growth rate of 11.8% (June 1993), a minimum of only 2.6% (January 1993).
The late 1980s, the corporate debt in the process of economic growth in the higher growth rate , its one of the reasons is the economy of Credit ". Began to engage in enterprise reform in 1985, the expansion of enterprise autonomy, to reform the existing system of central planning, enlarged lateral economic ties between enterprises, between enterprises the debt from scratch, began to increase. First of all this can be seen from the ratio of the inter-enterprise debt and industrial loans. In a long time, in September 1986-1988 receivable payment in advance of the 4000 major-and medium-sized state-owned enterprises and industrial loans Total (all enterprises) ratio of only 7% -9%, no more than 10%; while in the end of 1992 a ratio has reached 17%. From corporate debt and the ratio of the total industrial output value in December 1985 only 3% to 4% in December 1987; And by the end of 1992, has reached 7%. In short, in the growth of debt in the period of economic growth among enterprises, part of normal growth.
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