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2004 stock market given the number of variables

Author: Anonymous From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2007-11-20 09:15:15 Read:
[Abstract] all the signs indicate that macroeconomic is one step away from deflation era commence new round signs of accelerated growth, Although there has been inflation and investment overheating may occur that concern, but this trend has only just begun 2004 will still continue. This year's theme of the stock market growth is the strong stronger, hot market is not out of the environment. Course and direction of the mainstream of economic growth in the period of time an integral value, so does not blind pursuit of higher update the concept of speculation in the stock market this year, choosing instead a pragmatic industry expectations, in 2004, it will continue to reflect positions in agencies. Economic growth, the value of hot concentrated market differentiation are talking about a set number of this market, however, the current stock market is not the only set number, I am afraid that variable will be even greater, the focus of this variable in the state-owned shares and market full on circulation problems.

Every New Year, we all have to do an inventory of this market happened in the past year, the prospect of the stock market in the coming year. Show staged year after year, we have no need to pre-empt the holding bullish or bearish mentality to discuss the details of the index run, but the focus on the emerging market phenomenon and the significant changes that may occur in the future .

Growth environment

Refers to growth is not a stock index rose, but the overall macroeconomic run. Some people have been skeptical of China's rapid economic growth figures, and indeed some of the structural problems of the growth has been there, but from the perspective of the total, which is indeed an undeniable trend.
Upcoming Listed Companies 2003 Annual Report should be consistent with the environment, there is no complete information, but the average level of profitability in the Annual Report 2003 than last year have greatly improved the growth rate of the total market revenue estimates two percent, thirty, this is quite a staggering figure.
Production and living materials prices, RMB appreciation pressure, energy supply continued tension, are a true reflection of the economic growth. Engaged in stock market investment, must not ignore this premise, the stock market run perhaps from the growth of the overall environment, must be from the local hot spots and the environment consistent this year, the trend of the market hot plate undoubtedly prove this point.
All indications are that the macroeconomic being a step-by-step out of the deflation era, to commence a new round of accelerated signs of growth, Although there has been inflation and investment overheating may occur that concern, but this trend has only just begun, 2004 will still continue. This year it was discovered that the hot plate in the stock market has been very focused on these two important stages and over the years, the performance of active recombinant plate, and ST stocks, and in the beginning and at the end of this year almost no market for the simple reason, this year's theme growth is the strong stronger, the hot market is not out of the environment, the 2004 is the same.

The value found is the main theme

Blue chip, basic industries, pillar industries based blue chip hot market throughout 2003 always linked almost all of the hot plate generation are industry growth is expected. Early strength in stocks was concentrated in the automotive, steel, finance, three plates, while the year-end market the hot concentrated in the energy, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metal plate. From a stock perspective, the blue chip market has absolutely been the core species institutional positions, maintained a stable trend in Ruoshi.
It can be said that this is an investment philosophy of change, also said changes in the way a speculation, more specifically, a return to the market value of orientation. After a long-term adjustment in the market, has returned a value of re-discovery of the era. Investment must first determine the risk, the biggest risk in the current market there are two aspects, on the one hand, from the policy side of the market as a whole structure may change and lead to the risk, on the other hand from the listed companies, non-standard behavior of listed companies the accumulation of excessive speculation and market risk of individual stocks could lead to a sudden outbreak.
For the former group risk market institutions are powerless to avoid the second type of risk is the preferred blue chips become the safe haven Ruoshi not accidental. The value of the discovery process is actually found is a risk, the blue chips steadily higher does not make to reduce systemic risk in the market, but you can make a more balanced distribution of market risk.
Course and direction of the mainstream of economic growth in the period of time an integral value, so does not blind pursuit of higher update the concept of speculation in the stock market this year, choosing instead a pragmatic industry expectations, in 2004, it will continue to reflect positions in agencies.

The hotspot further concentrate the market further differentiation

The 2003 Quotes characteristics is not the same as the past, regardless of the beginning or the end of a rebound, with the stock up, the market is hot and no significant diffusion, the final strength is still stronger outset. This feature is more obvious in the end of the rally, the blue chips are always obvious callback market edge portion of the stocks in the shock is always without success to get rid of the bottom area.
There are a number of stock on the Hong Kong stock market is known as "penny stocks" only pennies per transaction price, usually little trading this market which there is a majority of the stock price is lower than the net asset value per share. The existence of the phenomenon of "penny stock" is normal, there is good there is bad, rather than counter to a little unusual. Although there is no "penny stock" in the A-share market, but this year, prices of many stocks can already see the shadow of the "penny stock". Adjustment of prices in the second half of this year, a lot of stock liquidity greatly reduced, or even individual stocks throughout the day without transaction this part of the stocks is the angle of funds in the market to give up the edge from the value found in the rally after the advent of this type of stocks did not appear to follow the trend of the broader market rose.


The hot concentrated accompanied by another phenomenon is inevitable market differentiation, the development of the stock market can not long been marginalized, but the development of the market itself will inevitably produce the differentiation, a considerable portion of the stocks will be "fallen" to the edge of the market, out of the whole The trend of the broader market. There is no potential for growth, but not enough on the delisting conditions of stocks in 2004, the situation may be an awkward bit.
Market, the smaller the synchronization of the more obvious features, such as the B-share market movers almost simultaneously. The larger the market, the more obvious differences, will only increase the size of the market in 2004.

Market given the number of variables

Economic growth, the value of hot concentrated market differentiation are talking about a set number of this market, however, the current stock market is not the only set number variable probably will be a little more variable focus on state-owned shares and market full on circulation problems.
This question there is no way to do a very precise predictions, because now it seems everything is still unknown, be able to know that as long as these policies are any sign of trouble, will the market have a significant impact, the extent of the impact will be more than any of the above Analysis. The impact of state-owned shares may be smaller, but the full circulation of the market's significance is far-reaching.
The sphere of public opinion occurred in the second half of 2003 a full circulation problem, discuss the reasons discussed perhaps how much a vent discontent market trend, but this issue is raised, the market it is impossible to start from scratch and full circulation sooner or later can not be avoided, 2004 will still be the focus of the market, this problem change, then the trend of the market will follow this overall situation, and all other factors are secondary.

The Changyang opening is a symbol of

The first trading day of 2004 and Shenzhen stock index closing to candle, a candle is the first week of 2004, a weekly look at the actual trend of the market, the roots weeks symbolism of the line is greater than its actual technical sense. Sinopec, China Unicom led stock indexes rose far more than the market price changes, the market has ushered in a good start, this start might be an omen, seems to presage the market in 2004 will perform a What kind of market -
The index is indeed on the rise, but the index is still leading the broader market blue-chip, this feature through before and after the end of the year, an army far to go in front of the others in this race, obviously. If the market in 2004, I am afraid that from the nature of the market of large-cap stocks. Entire shift occurred in the second half of 2003, is the market performance of large-cap stocks from the freezing point toward warm, freezing sign Southern Airlines net asset value per share issue price listed, sign of warming China Petrochemical breakthrough issue price , but the trend is not yet reached the end of the boiling, the temperature is still further increased.
Market Features of each period and each period of market positioning, and policy requirements related to the 2003 agency era harbinger, then this body age more precisely I am afraid that the era of super market. Super market must be seen in order for the future super tape leaving enough room for listed, the next super tape will replace the current Army leading position, this is the main idea of ??this time since the market running.
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