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Rural debt scale, structure, risks and effects analysis

Author: SongHongYuan From: www.yourpaper.net Posted: 2007-11-19 15:11:21 Read:

Source: Based on the field survey data
The 7 surveys Village debt analysis indicators (%)

Source: Based on the field survey data
VILLAGE debt rate was rapid upward trend, ranging from the level of debt service capacity. The higher rate of debt of the underdeveloped countryside, especially B Township, 1999 and 2000 debt balance in excess of 2 times the total fiscal revenue for two consecutive years. A township since 1996, mid-take on new debt, and did not repay any debt, the debt increased year by year, four years within the debt ratio increased 35-fold, an increase of 143.2%. C-Town, debt balance, but because of the fiscal revenue base, balance of payments, so the debt ratio is relatively low, there is a strong debt service capacity. Based on the debt service ratio, we divided the rural countryside, outstanding debt, such as Township B and F Village beyond fiscal (financial) income multiple, belonging to no ability to repay debt countryside; Town, C and G Village debt amount, but the fiscal (financial) income base is also large, you can arrange a debt settlement funds belong to completely have the ability to repay the debt owed countryside; Township A and E village somewhere in between, is by adjusting and optimizing the financial expenditure structure, village to repay part of the debt.
3. Village debt service ratio reflects the underdeveloped areas of village-level debt service burden heavier. Are higher than in the village on the debt service ratio, in addition to the individual years, Village E and F Village Village G village, especially in recent years. From the actual situation, the G village repayment ability, only 16.5 million debt balance, F village debt balance of up to 304,000 yuan, only C village 1/5-1 plus financial income of the village on the F / 4, F village heavier debt burden.
4 farmers per capita amount of the liabilities and the burden rate is greatly improved, the burden is heavy. Due to excessive debt growth rate, the per capita amount of the liabilities of farmers is increasing rapidly. B Township six years per capita debt increased by three times the average annual growth rate of 20.1%; A township average annual growth rate of 39.5%; C the town average annual growth of 57%. Debt has grown faster than the growth rate of farmers 'net income, the survey township farmers' burden on the individual rate is very fast. A township in just four years, the burden rate increased 6.5 times, with an average annual growth of 59.7%. Combined with the statistics of other places, we have reason to believe that, the township fiscal and village-level financial debt formed a higher degree of dependence, and the increasing trend. Especially the majority of the central and western regions, some towns have reached the point of "debt unsustainable", called "liabilities of financial" or "beggar financial" in no way an exaggeration. In these regions, the debt-to-rural organizations formed a heavy burden entangled in a debt transaction which forced rural person in charge. The village debt rate was rapid upward trend, debt service capacity, high and low. Some villages absolutely no ability to repay the debt owed to some villages by efforts to repay part of the debt, some villages have the ability to repay the debt owed. From the the individual farmers burden rate point of view, the overall burden heavier. This means that if the debt is not able to resolve through other channels, the debt will pose a serious threat of community farmers. Emerged from the development trend of several indicators, the growth. This shows that both the southeast coast, central and western regions, rural debt risks are increasing. The debt crisis, signs of a considerable part of the year in a considerable part of the region have, if you can not get timely and effective governance, which developed coastal areas, including the majority of the village is bound to fall into a deep debt crisis, which the development of the national economy and social stability pose a challenge. The policy implications of this judgment is that the governance of rural debt is around the corner!
According to the bond measure of risk of rural debt has made the above analysis. However, the debt structure and debt constraints, rural country there are essential differences, such as: (1) the township can be passed on to the higher levels of government debt. (2) rural organizations may find opportunity and an excuse to evade the debt, and the country generally can not do so. (3) Perhaps more importantly, the Bank is the main creditor of the rural debt, and weak financial sector itself soft budget constraint as well as banks and the government's special relationship led to the formation of the binding of the bank loans of the township government departments. The survey found that many rural cadres do not even put the financial sector loans within the township debt. Therefore, the pressure generated by the debt, and risk may be higher than calculated according to the above indicators to be small. These differences are also proposed for the analysis of rural debt problems that need further study, that is, how to determine the appropriate scale of the village debt, as well as the establishment of the township (broadly speaking local) public debt risk assessment index system.
liabilities effect analysis
Many rural liabilities are non-performing debt assumptions about debt problems containing the liabilities as the phenomenon is a result in the deterioration of the local social welfare and therefore must be prohibited. But in fact, the analysis of the economic and social effects on the liabilities may not be so simple. The large number of rural debt and economic system transition backdrop primary responsibility of the Government to promote the modernization increases related. Scarcity of financial resources has long been a key factor constraining economic and social development of rural areas, liabilities, to a large extent alleviated the difficulties in rural areas, lack of funds, the industrialization of agriculture, an important means of financing of township enterprises and the development of urbanization, accelerating the modernization process in rural areas.
In the modern market economy conditions, optimize the allocation of resources, market forces alone is not enough to promote economic development, especially as our country such a backward country, must pay full attention and play to the functions and role of government in regulating the economy, and the moderate deficit and debt policy is a necessary means for the government to regulate economic activities and promote economic development. So, the key question is not can not borrow, but the debt must maintain an appropriate scale. The main issue is the size of the debt is too much debt risks continue to increase. Dependence on debt is too high, indicating that the operation of township finances and village-level financial increasingly dependent on debt financing. The debt service ratio and debt ratio is too heavy, it indicates that too much financial pressure to repay affect the normal public spending activities. The burden is high, individual farmers will pose a threat to farmers' burden. Spending and put into heavy debt pressures seriously affect the smooth functioning of the grassroots political power, reduce public goods and services. Village cadres, especially the large part of the energy of the major leading cadres used to run the borrowing to make ends meet, or are forced to cope creditors dun complain, petitions and a lawsuit, led to a reduction in public management inputs. The same time, due liabilities excessive, teachers, difficult for cadres wages to full and timely payment affects the majority of teachers, cadres of enthusiasm, which may lead to paralysis of the rural public authority or organization. Also, in the case of not repay channels, liabilities of community farmers constitute a serious threat, may lead to a rebound in farmers' burdens, the results of the erosion of the tax-for-fee reform or continuing arrears, led to the government's credibility and image was seriously damaged.
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